* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 08/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 53 63 70 75 76 76 77 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 53 63 70 75 76 76 77 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 58 62 63 63 63 SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 8 6 6 8 6 4 7 2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 115 103 105 130 147 158 120 141 157 233 146 146 123 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 158 156 152 147 143 139 136 132 125 123 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 75 73 71 68 65 66 61 60 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 0 -1 -3 9 35 43 53 70 84 87 82 200 MB DIV 100 85 72 64 65 47 55 39 27 18 18 14 6 LAND (KM) 764 801 846 889 958 1031 1130 1276 1462 1676 1876 2130 1990 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.5 17.6 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.7 109.2 110.6 112.0 114.8 117.5 120.3 123.3 126.4 129.5 132.6 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 14 15 15 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 41 48 48 45 45 51 37 18 17 7 14 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 28. 38. 45. 50. 51. 51. 52. 52. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 08/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 5.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 08/11/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY