* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 41 39 35 29 25 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 41 39 35 29 25 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 31 31 28 25 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 7 13 9 11 17 20 29 33 45 36 37 SHEAR DIR 243 214 192 188 189 170 200 222 233 236 239 249 255 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 123 121 119 119 121 121 121 119 117 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 118 117 116 114 115 115 113 110 105 101 99 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 62 61 61 63 55 55 49 51 49 47 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 12 32 47 71 71 68 24 -4 -36 -59 -94 -110 200 MB DIV 31 28 28 25 15 12 29 45 2 11 6 -13 -38 LAND (KM) 1119 1197 1278 1382 1485 1760 2065 2124 2100 2154 2219 2224 2266 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.2 17.1 17.9 19.4 21.0 22.6 24.1 25.3 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 27.9 28.7 29.4 30.4 31.3 33.8 36.6 39.7 42.2 44.1 45.2 45.5 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 13 15 15 13 11 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 8 10 10 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 14. 10. 4. 0. -6. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%)