* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 08/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 40 39 35 29 25 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 40 39 35 29 25 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 31 30 28 25 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 7 13 9 11 17 20 29 33 45 36 38 SHEAR DIR 244 214 200 188 189 170 200 222 233 236 239 249 256 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 122 121 119 118 121 121 121 119 117 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 117 115 116 114 114 115 113 110 105 101 98 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 61 61 61 63 53 54 49 50 49 47 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 33 47 71 70 66 22 -5 -38 -60 -96 -109 200 MB DIV 30 28 27 24 13 10 27 44 2 11 7 -12 -38 LAND (KM) 1118 1197 1279 1382 1486 1761 2078 2132 2110 2164 2231 2237 2285 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.5 21.1 22.7 24.2 25.4 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 27.9 28.7 29.4 30.4 31.3 33.8 36.7 39.7 42.2 44.1 45.1 45.4 45.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 14 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 8 6 4 4 4 6 8 10 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 4. -1. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 15. 14. 10. 4. 0. -6. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 08/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%)