* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012009 08/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 57 59 60 61 61 61 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 57 59 60 61 61 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 10 4 4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 262 294 258 251 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 145 145 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 70 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 2 22 40 40 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 34 23 42 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1476 1548 1626 1704 1785 1924 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.7 171.8 172.9 174.0 175.0 176.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 58 61 65 64 58 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. 30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012009 ONE 08/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012009 ONE 08/11/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY