* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 36 40 44 45 46 45 46 48 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 36 40 44 45 46 45 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 32 35 39 42 44 44 44 44 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 4 5 8 10 5 11 7 14 9 3 SHEAR DIR 318 324 334 357 52 86 129 145 189 214 204 269 296 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 144 141 140 137 133 131 132 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 64 64 62 57 52 51 51 55 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -9 -6 -3 0 0 15 25 43 60 75 76 76 200 MB DIV 12 -4 -23 4 6 4 -23 -23 -17 7 18 10 -10 LAND (KM) 1783 1852 1911 1972 2035 2184 2324 2127 1917 1705 1485 1261 1042 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.8 127.7 128.6 129.5 131.5 133.3 135.2 137.2 139.3 141.5 143.7 145.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 23 26 31 33 33 25 19 23 9 12 13 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 6. 10. 14. 15. 16. 15. 16. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/11/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY