* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 08/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 53 62 70 74 76 76 75 74 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 53 62 70 74 76 76 75 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 52 59 67 73 76 75 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 5 7 5 7 7 7 4 3 2 9 SHEAR DIR 42 69 107 109 138 131 115 59 93 30 187 343 146 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.5 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 155 155 154 150 148 147 145 142 141 134 125 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 79 76 74 73 74 69 66 63 65 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 8 7 10 10 14 24 39 42 57 52 76 76 72 200 MB DIV 103 97 86 87 97 71 59 54 18 7 20 14 14 LAND (KM) 920 954 989 1034 1094 1170 1244 1378 1492 1658 1835 2035 2192 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 108.8 110.2 111.4 112.6 115.0 117.3 119.8 122.3 125.0 127.9 131.0 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 41 42 41 48 49 36 23 14 14 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 28. 37. 45. 49. 51. 51. 50. 49. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 08/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 5.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 08/11/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED