* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 34 37 42 43 45 45 44 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 34 37 42 43 45 45 44 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 30 32 35 40 43 45 45 44 44 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 7 7 9 4 8 11 8 9 5 10 SHEAR DIR 320 329 340 24 34 99 142 150 215 190 251 173 181 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 146 145 143 140 137 135 133 134 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 63 62 59 58 52 55 56 58 57 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 0 6 10 10 20 39 43 73 56 74 84 103 200 MB DIV 3 -10 10 15 20 10 8 0 7 25 32 26 57 LAND (KM) 1867 1938 2007 2082 2159 2317 2232 2056 1865 1662 1447 1250 1068 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.9 128.8 129.8 130.7 132.6 134.3 136.0 137.9 139.9 142.0 144.0 145.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 30 36 37 36 34 26 26 16 17 19 24 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 13. 15. 15. 14. 15. 17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/11/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY