* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 42 46 49 50 50 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 42 46 49 50 50 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 37 39 41 42 42 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 4 12 18 23 15 9 15 13 20 19 SHEAR DIR 200 208 193 121 119 124 125 148 164 184 209 236 234 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 127 126 125 123 122 120 120 121 125 130 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 122 121 120 118 117 115 115 115 119 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 65 62 63 61 57 61 59 57 52 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 13 11 11 10 9 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 51 58 70 73 80 93 65 75 54 32 22 -19 -63 200 MB DIV 51 30 10 6 27 63 55 43 36 32 -3 -3 12 LAND (KM) 1332 1456 1579 1697 1815 1994 1810 1675 1570 1505 1490 1455 1377 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.9 19.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.1 32.2 33.3 34.4 36.7 39.2 41.6 43.8 46.1 48.3 50.6 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 7 6 4 7 12 10 15 26 35 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 22. 20. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%)