* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MAKA CP012009 08/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 61 68 72 75 77 79 80 78 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 50 61 68 72 75 77 79 80 78 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 44 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 9 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 316 323 324 331 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 145 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 66 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 8 9 7 7 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 40 40 45 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 29 28 44 31 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1659 1733 1810 1885 1963 2094 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.2 174.2 175.2 176.2 177.1 178.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 66 64 63 59 59 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 26. 33. 37. 40. 42. 44. 45. 43. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012009 MAKA 08/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012009 MAKA 08/11/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY