* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP082009 08/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 36 38 38 38 38 40 35 39 33 27 26 26 26 SHEAR DIR 274 273 273 280 281 274 285 284 289 306 344 22 50 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 123 125 126 128 130 130 131 133 134 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 31 30 34 36 38 39 38 38 45 43 44 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 6 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -23 -16 -10 -16 -10 -3 -5 -11 -19 -28 -54 -68 200 MB DIV -34 -42 -58 -39 -11 -27 -13 -10 -25 -24 -15 -42 -33 LAND (KM) 129 71 4 47 44 89 230 382 547 710 855 965 1079 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.9 24.7 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 154.2 155.2 156.1 157.1 158.1 159.8 161.9 163.5 165.1 166.6 167.9 168.8 169.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 7 3 7 9 12 12 17 18 19 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -17. -26. -30. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. -3. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -27. -34. -34. -38. -39. -42. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082009 FELICIA 08/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/11/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY