* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 33 36 40 41 43 43 44 45 47 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 33 36 40 41 43 43 44 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 40 42 44 44 44 46 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 8 10 10 5 7 2 8 5 8 10 SHEAR DIR 323 345 21 44 77 130 147 173 246 223 267 179 188 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 143 142 138 134 132 135 135 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 62 61 60 53 52 51 53 51 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 2 5 10 10 37 31 48 62 78 82 83 83 200 MB DIV -18 4 17 17 8 17 6 -7 30 21 34 33 30 LAND (KM) 1970 2044 2120 2190 2261 2287 2056 1851 1672 1471 1250 1059 895 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.3 130.3 131.2 132.0 133.8 136.0 138.0 139.8 141.8 144.0 146.0 147.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 35 35 33 29 26 15 17 20 24 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/11/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY