* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 08/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 54 59 60 58 56 53 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 54 59 60 58 56 53 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 44 46 45 42 39 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 9 6 8 7 6 1 7 6 12 13 SHEAR DIR 108 118 128 161 155 121 94 86 178 208 227 203 214 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.5 25.7 24.6 24.0 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 154 152 149 145 141 136 130 122 111 104 101 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 72 74 73 68 68 64 66 62 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 11 14 21 37 32 57 45 56 39 5 -16 200 MB DIV 55 61 72 80 71 45 5 9 2 -3 13 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 933 1002 1055 1073 1108 1220 1331 1482 1634 1792 2005 1997 1710 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.2 113.5 114.8 116.0 118.5 121.1 123.8 126.6 129.5 132.5 135.7 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 44 49 51 30 15 8 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 29. 34. 35. 33. 31. 28. 23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 08/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 08/11/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY