* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MAKA CP012009 08/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 56 61 64 67 69 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 56 61 64 67 69 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 322 297 314 349 344 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 145 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 49 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 26 15 29 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1658 1715 1775 1839 1904 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.9 173.8 174.6 175.5 176.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 63 67 67 64 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 41. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012009 MAKA 08/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012009 MAKA 08/12/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY