* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 35 39 43 47 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 35 39 43 47 50 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 22 23 26 27 29 32 35 40 46 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 6 8 6 10 6 10 2 7 7 7 SHEAR DIR 312 343 40 93 123 150 147 202 109 26 95 133 137 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 143 142 140 139 136 137 138 140 137 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 63 62 59 58 58 59 59 57 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 19 24 30 42 40 68 70 85 81 96 80 200 MB DIV 14 17 18 8 3 5 -4 32 17 46 49 61 39 LAND (KM) 2059 2139 2221 2293 2349 2169 1971 1768 1576 1391 1235 1069 915 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.7 13.8 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 129.4 130.4 131.4 132.3 133.2 135.0 137.0 139.0 141.0 143.0 144.9 146.7 148.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 33 33 32 33 25 18 19 28 36 26 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 10. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/12/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY