* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 08/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 47 54 57 59 57 54 47 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 47 54 57 59 57 54 47 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 41 40 37 34 30 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 3 5 2 2 5 1 5 11 21 22 SHEAR DIR 333 61 151 156 150 80 162 273 281 223 189 224 245 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.6 24.1 23.6 23.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 150 147 142 134 128 121 106 100 97 99 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 72 73 71 68 65 61 59 56 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 10 17 31 23 38 48 41 34 13 -3 -23 200 MB DIV 64 61 66 68 73 28 9 -8 2 29 13 -18 -7 LAND (KM) 980 1027 1041 1070 1115 1223 1354 1530 1705 1914 2071 1780 1545 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.5 114.8 116.1 117.3 119.9 122.6 125.5 128.7 131.8 135.0 137.9 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 53 45 37 17 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 32. 34. 32. 29. 22. 15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 08/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 08/12/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY