* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/12/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 28 31 33 36 41 46 49 53 56 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 28 31 33 36 41 46 49 53 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 23 22 23 24 26 28 31 35 40 46 52 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 7 8 8 9 5 9 8 13 8 7 SHEAR DIR 15 36 73 119 144 145 168 106 143 59 110 111 186 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 143 142 142 140 141 141 141 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 64 63 56 55 57 57 51 50 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 23 33 36 49 53 55 71 82 79 83 98 79 200 MB DIV 16 8 4 3 13 2 -7 13 19 24 43 72 47 LAND (KM) 2174 2252 2332 2332 2248 2067 1883 1717 1561 1406 1247 1098 954 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.7 132.6 133.5 134.3 136.2 138.1 139.9 141.6 143.3 144.9 146.6 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 41 40 38 32 19 23 26 29 37 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 21. 24. 28. 31. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/12/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/12/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY