* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 08/12/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 56 58 53 46 40 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 56 58 53 46 40 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 40 40 37 34 29 24 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 5 5 1 4 4 8 14 27 39 42 SHEAR DIR 48 108 132 126 144 53 279 314 207 223 221 239 241 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.0 26.2 25.5 24.0 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 147 144 135 128 121 105 97 94 93 93 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 73 71 66 64 59 60 55 54 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 21 34 30 23 42 30 26 10 -4 -29 -63 200 MB DIV 52 57 67 79 67 -2 3 8 30 26 4 14 -12 LAND (KM) 1013 1027 1063 1117 1167 1282 1449 1632 1843 2006 1867 1700 1642 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.1 20.3 21.6 23.2 24.8 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.9 116.3 117.6 118.9 121.6 124.6 127.9 131.2 134.5 137.2 139.3 140.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 14 16 16 17 16 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 51 35 32 21 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 7. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 29. 31. 33. 28. 22. 15. 5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 08/12/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 08/12/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY