* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 48 51 50 49 49 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 48 51 50 49 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 40 41 43 45 45 45 SHEAR (KT) 14 19 19 14 11 21 15 12 10 13 18 18 17 SHEAR DIR 116 119 126 119 98 123 150 176 252 248 269 244 260 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 124 124 123 121 121 125 131 138 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 121 120 120 119 117 117 121 129 135 138 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 64 61 61 61 57 53 50 49 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 79 91 89 85 76 62 54 37 27 2 -34 -61 -93 200 MB DIV 40 40 64 65 46 26 5 18 -20 -37 11 17 35 LAND (KM) 1699 1817 1936 1955 1849 1655 1530 1434 1385 1323 1185 923 789 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.8 18.0 19.6 21.4 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.4 35.5 36.8 38.0 40.5 43.0 45.5 48.2 51.2 54.5 57.5 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 17 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 4 6 13 10 12 25 41 46 52 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 20. 19. 19. 18. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)