* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL822009 08/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 45 47 49 48 46 47 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 45 47 49 48 46 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 35 37 39 41 43 44 44 44 SHEAR (KT) 14 20 19 14 11 21 15 12 10 13 19 18 17 SHEAR DIR 121 121 128 124 104 123 150 179 252 248 268 245 260 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 124 124 123 122 121 121 126 131 138 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 120 120 119 118 117 117 122 129 134 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 63 61 61 60 57 52 51 50 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 80 92 90 86 77 63 55 35 24 -2 -37 -63 -94 200 MB DIV 36 39 60 60 44 25 4 16 -17 -37 10 14 35 LAND (KM) 1697 1816 1934 1973 1863 1679 1556 1462 1415 1343 1189 935 812 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.8 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.3 19.9 21.7 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.4 35.5 36.8 38.0 40.5 43.0 45.5 48.2 51.2 54.5 57.5 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 17 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 6 9 10 10 12 25 42 44 52 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 18. 16. 17. 16. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL822009 TEST 08/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)