* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 39 43 48 52 57 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 39 43 48 52 57 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 35 39 46 53 60 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 13 14 13 7 10 10 13 11 12 7 SHEAR DIR 38 85 127 142 160 174 176 107 82 91 73 111 110 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 142 142 141 141 142 143 143 143 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 68 64 64 59 55 56 60 61 57 57 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 38 46 61 67 52 48 46 65 63 73 76 73 200 MB DIV 11 19 21 20 36 1 5 5 38 34 78 77 83 LAND (KM) 2284 2364 2299 2212 2125 1943 1790 1644 1509 1384 1285 1156 1023 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.1 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.7 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.9 133.8 134.7 135.6 137.5 139.2 140.9 142.5 144.0 145.3 146.6 147.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 39 33 34 19 26 28 30 38 37 37 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 37. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/12/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY