* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102009 08/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 42 48 51 53 51 45 38 29 20 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 42 48 51 53 51 45 38 29 20 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 42 44 45 42 37 32 27 22 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 4 2 2 5 5 15 20 26 38 41 SHEAR DIR 122 121 138 138 73 23 339 153 222 219 245 241 253 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.6 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 142 138 130 122 113 100 96 94 94 94 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 71 68 66 66 59 59 55 55 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 29 36 36 26 37 40 20 28 5 -18 -45 -50 200 MB DIV 59 66 62 58 44 0 5 -12 17 11 10 -9 -24 LAND (KM) 1056 1092 1143 1187 1238 1363 1495 1654 1866 2025 1821 1645 1576 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.9 18.8 19.9 20.7 21.7 22.9 24.3 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.9 118.1 119.4 120.6 123.2 125.9 128.8 131.7 134.9 137.6 139.7 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 13 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 38 35 29 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 18. 21. 23. 21. 15. 8. -1. -10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 TEN 08/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 TEN 08/12/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY