* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/12/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 49 52 56 57 55 53 51 49 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 49 52 56 57 55 53 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 47 50 53 56 58 57 56 54 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 14 15 16 9 9 10 22 19 27 20 SHEAR DIR 99 110 97 94 108 150 139 192 238 244 248 255 251 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 124 123 124 123 122 124 129 135 142 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 120 119 120 121 120 121 127 133 139 140 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 62 62 63 60 53 49 48 50 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 101 98 93 87 81 74 54 37 34 13 -9 -47 -66 200 MB DIV 29 46 55 33 35 24 7 -8 -49 -12 6 11 34 LAND (KM) 1818 1931 1939 1866 1768 1571 1423 1322 1287 1182 1035 810 744 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.6 16.6 18.1 20.0 22.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.4 35.5 36.5 37.7 38.8 41.4 44.2 47.0 50.0 53.0 56.0 59.0 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 8 26 40 45 39 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 21. 22. 20. 18. 16. 14. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)