* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MAKA CP012009 08/12/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 33 33 35 36 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 33 33 35 36 37 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 246 251 259 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 145 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 59 64 63 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 44 46 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 27 68 78 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1720 1799 1880 1944 2009 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.3 175.3 176.2 177.0 177.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 81 79 82 78 79 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012009 MAKA 08/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 79.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012009 MAKA 08/12/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY