* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/13/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 28 31 35 41 47 51 56 58 59 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 28 31 35 41 47 51 56 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 22 22 23 25 29 35 40 45 50 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 12 10 12 4 12 9 11 12 17 13 21 SHEAR DIR 134 147 160 161 165 177 107 103 94 108 140 141 144 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 145 145 143 143 143 144 143 142 141 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 63 62 59 60 62 66 63 62 62 62 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 61 69 64 62 58 55 73 95 90 84 77 78 200 MB DIV 4 9 31 25 14 3 32 74 57 88 83 104 84 LAND (KM) 2326 2259 2192 2111 2031 1892 1838 1771 1695 1619 1563 1517 1481 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 133.7 134.5 135.2 136.1 137.0 138.6 139.2 139.9 140.7 141.5 142.1 142.6 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 5 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 33 33 31 11 17 16 19 29 30 30 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 22. 26. 31. 33. 34. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/13/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/13/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY