* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/13/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 50 54 60 61 57 51 46 44 41 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 50 54 60 61 57 51 46 44 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 42 44 47 49 51 50 48 45 42 40 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 4 5 1 3 9 5 10 14 15 10 SHEAR DIR 95 111 113 99 120 168 121 223 216 219 191 213 218 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.9 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 139 137 135 132 130 121 117 114 114 119 121 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 71 70 67 68 66 60 56 47 47 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 12 10 8 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 29 38 46 58 81 86 71 47 29 31 6 200 MB DIV 66 43 33 25 22 26 45 45 -6 7 3 0 -16 LAND (KM) 1171 1226 1291 1370 1458 1643 1853 2070 2104 1786 1429 1094 770 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.8 121.0 122.3 123.6 126.5 129.4 132.2 134.8 137.8 141.2 144.4 147.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 14 14 13 13 13 15 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 34 22 8 6 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 19. 25. 26. 22. 16. 11. 9. 6. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/13/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/13/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY