* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/13/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 34 36 38 41 40 41 40 42 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 34 36 38 41 40 41 40 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 35 36 37 37 38 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 19 20 15 20 16 14 18 12 21 18 28 SHEAR DIR 100 97 115 141 156 130 172 174 229 241 250 263 264 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 124 124 122 123 128 134 142 145 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 120 120 120 118 120 127 133 139 142 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 61 63 64 60 55 51 51 52 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 88 78 72 75 74 69 58 43 24 6 -29 -58 -89 200 MB DIV 55 40 35 37 37 32 30 -16 -15 -3 2 5 10 LAND (KM) 1917 1861 1771 1680 1593 1455 1334 1262 1155 1009 762 547 637 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.9 17.0 18.3 19.7 21.7 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.6 38.6 39.8 40.9 43.2 45.8 48.9 52.4 55.7 58.6 61.9 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 15 17 17 16 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 18 35 47 53 40 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 10. 11. 10. 12. 11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/13/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/13/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY