* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 08/13/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 67 75 78 83 88 93 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 67 75 78 83 88 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 29 33 40 48 57 65 75 83 SHEAR (KT) 24 18 22 17 10 12 10 10 10 10 8 11 8 SHEAR DIR 80 76 87 99 71 57 79 62 58 21 23 28 7 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.6 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 136 134 132 134 131 131 128 134 139 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 138 137 135 134 137 135 137 132 139 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.0 -52.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 85 81 82 79 77 71 70 61 58 55 58 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 14 17 19 21 22 23 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 41 50 55 52 50 62 77 64 76 73 70 76 71 200 MB DIV 57 74 129 133 109 102 113 43 1 -24 5 37 56 LAND (KM) 570 702 818 944 1073 1384 1725 1767 1501 1205 942 790 634 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 22.0 23.3 24.5 25.8 27.1 30.1 33.3 36.9 40.9 45.1 49.1 52.7 55.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 14 15 17 19 20 20 19 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 8 6 7 9 8 9 12 26 34 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 28. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 19. 30. 42. 50. 53. 58. 63. 68. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 08/13/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)