* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/13/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 62 65 67 67 62 55 49 43 39 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 62 65 67 67 62 55 49 43 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 59 61 63 62 60 57 53 49 45 41 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 3 2 4 6 5 11 14 23 17 19 SHEAR DIR 92 97 102 134 143 332 193 265 227 208 211 213 206 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.3 25.2 24.9 25.0 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 134 132 130 123 118 117 113 115 120 122 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 71 68 65 66 64 63 60 50 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 33 34 40 64 75 79 88 61 56 30 28 200 MB DIV 36 25 13 18 26 27 52 26 18 37 24 12 -14 LAND (KM) 1214 1275 1344 1435 1532 1695 1845 2074 2008 1683 1401 1056 679 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.1 122.2 123.5 124.7 127.5 129.8 132.6 135.7 138.8 141.5 144.8 148.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 12 13 13 12 14 15 14 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 16 7 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 17. 11. 4. -2. -6. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/13/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/13/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY