* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/13/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 32 32 33 36 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 32 32 33 36 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 22 22 23 22 22 22 SHEAR (KT) 16 21 25 20 17 21 9 17 16 21 18 22 31 SHEAR DIR 96 111 130 147 136 154 182 180 224 215 261 239 270 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 123 123 123 122 124 130 135 144 145 143 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 119 119 119 120 122 127 134 145 144 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 65 63 66 56 52 50 51 51 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 77 75 75 79 86 92 71 62 58 40 6 -20 -41 200 MB DIV 17 35 39 42 48 42 3 -9 -2 7 33 24 36 LAND (KM) 1892 1800 1712 1632 1557 1406 1283 1224 1079 938 550 425 544 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.6 15.3 16.1 17.0 18.2 19.8 21.6 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.3 39.4 40.5 41.6 44.2 47.2 50.3 53.3 56.8 60.7 63.6 65.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 14 15 15 17 19 18 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 27 39 55 47 47 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 7. 8. 11. 13. 13. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/13/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/13/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY