* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 08/13/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 42 50 60 65 66 66 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 42 50 60 65 66 66 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 40 47 52 57 60 64 SHEAR (KT) 21 22 15 9 12 17 14 11 17 13 21 13 17 SHEAR DIR 81 92 88 55 32 47 60 66 19 18 350 11 341 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 138 136 133 134 132 130 127 127 136 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 138 139 137 135 137 135 134 132 132 142 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 75 71 72 67 57 50 51 49 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 47 46 51 66 73 75 46 33 11 7 -10 200 MB DIV 74 113 112 108 93 85 62 76 10 -32 -7 14 8 LAND (KM) 623 748 860 1004 1151 1497 1851 1734 1427 1179 1026 729 545 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.8 25.0 26.5 27.9 31.2 34.7 38.4 42.6 47.0 51.5 56.0 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 22 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 7 6 7 9 7 7 10 32 52 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 17. 25. 35. 40. 41. 41. 45. 46. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 08/13/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)