* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/13/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 46 54 60 65 70 74 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 46 54 60 65 70 74 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 40 46 53 61 69 78 SHEAR (KT) 11 6 9 10 6 15 13 19 18 15 12 12 16 SHEAR DIR 134 139 143 151 137 85 89 90 78 97 82 95 85 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 149 150 149 149 149 148 147 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 61 63 66 68 70 70 66 64 63 66 64 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 47 51 47 31 28 28 29 42 35 51 68 200 MB DIV 3 -9 -14 -12 0 5 36 37 77 108 90 108 135 LAND (KM) 2247 2169 2092 2018 1946 1828 1778 1750 1738 1728 1744 1769 1820 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.1 11.7 11.5 11.2 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 135.1 136.1 137.0 137.9 138.8 140.2 141.1 141.8 142.2 142.4 142.3 142.0 141.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 35 27 30 36 37 40 43 44 44 43 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 21. 29. 35. 40. 45. 49. 51. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/13/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/13/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY