* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/13/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 68 69 69 64 58 50 45 40 34 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 68 69 69 64 58 50 45 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 66 68 69 67 64 60 55 50 45 40 36 SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 4 2 3 5 4 10 16 20 16 20 SHEAR DIR 109 114 132 148 205 108 198 185 223 210 234 226 221 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.8 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 131 129 126 118 114 112 109 112 118 119 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 66 69 68 67 64 57 52 53 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 10 8 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 47 56 63 63 85 88 101 67 41 38 9 12 200 MB DIV 25 11 23 23 29 41 41 0 15 11 1 -4 -23 LAND (KM) 1251 1333 1422 1517 1597 1777 1962 2173 1876 1582 1277 963 638 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.3 123.5 124.9 126.2 128.9 131.4 134.1 136.9 139.7 142.6 145.6 148.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 9. 3. -5. -10. -15. -21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/13/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/13/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY