* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 27 29 31 33 33 35 35 36 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 27 29 31 33 33 35 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 21 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 SHEAR (KT) 23 24 20 14 17 13 12 16 10 21 17 25 18 SHEAR DIR 108 128 149 132 137 160 165 241 244 254 273 272 285 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.8 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 123 122 122 124 130 137 144 144 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 118 119 119 119 119 122 128 136 144 143 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 61 65 65 65 65 65 58 54 54 51 52 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 82 85 81 78 83 74 53 51 27 4 -33 -77 -101 200 MB DIV 30 43 46 28 30 9 -16 -30 -17 4 11 10 1 LAND (KM) 1844 1764 1686 1602 1524 1368 1258 1192 1001 877 514 367 465 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.9 19.6 21.4 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 38.9 39.9 41.1 42.3 45.0 47.7 50.6 53.9 57.4 61.0 64.3 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 17 18 19 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 4 4 5 5 10 28 42 56 50 50 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/13/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY