* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 68 69 71 65 61 54 48 43 41 36 V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 68 69 71 65 61 54 48 43 41 36 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 68 70 70 68 64 59 53 48 43 38 35 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 1 6 5 9 12 11 22 23 22 19 SHEAR DIR 59 99 133 202 327 161 230 227 231 225 243 221 184 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 25.8 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.6 25.1 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 130 129 123 115 112 109 111 116 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 67 65 66 64 61 56 51 49 42 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 13 10 10 9 9 8 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 57 62 65 78 93 85 74 57 47 26 31 27 200 MB DIV 36 47 24 19 22 49 12 11 31 15 26 9 -1 LAND (KM) 1361 1459 1550 1627 1711 1904 2118 1981 1707 1403 1036 754 534 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.9 19.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.9 125.2 126.5 127.8 130.5 133.3 135.9 138.5 141.4 144.9 147.6 149.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 15 15 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 5. 1. -6. -12. -17. -19. -24. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/13/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY