* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/14/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 34 36 39 41 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 34 36 39 41 43 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 SHEAR (KT) 20 16 13 15 16 10 16 14 12 16 16 20 21 SHEAR DIR 128 139 107 131 158 169 189 258 227 276 269 283 259 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 123 122 122 123 128 133 141 144 144 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 119 119 119 121 127 132 141 144 143 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 13 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 63 66 62 58 55 52 51 51 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 74 79 82 66 56 46 33 1 -29 -71 -112 200 MB DIV 49 45 25 24 24 -9 -3 -33 -6 1 -4 16 3 LAND (KM) 1752 1667 1586 1502 1424 1273 1159 1061 873 664 305 355 495 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.9 18.2 19.7 21.7 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 39.0 40.1 41.2 42.5 43.8 46.5 49.6 52.7 55.9 59.4 63.2 66.4 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 17 18 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 5 6 7 22 39 51 55 50 51 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/14/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/14/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY