* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/14/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 54 60 65 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 54 60 65 67 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 34 39 45 53 61 67 71 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 6 8 12 15 15 13 11 9 13 17 24 SHEAR DIR 153 152 107 55 60 85 87 72 105 113 114 101 90 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 147 147 147 148 147 147 147 147 147 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 66 68 66 67 69 65 67 69 66 67 69 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 52 51 44 37 46 50 57 62 69 79 85 77 200 MB DIV -5 -9 0 10 24 44 54 83 115 101 98 89 100 LAND (KM) 2136 2068 2002 1952 1903 1855 1834 1802 1754 1745 1707 1700 1714 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 136.5 137.3 138.1 138.7 139.2 139.9 140.4 140.9 141.3 141.4 141.6 141.2 140.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 33 27 28 31 36 37 37 36 36 37 33 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 22. 29. 35. 40. 42. 44. 45. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/14/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/14/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY