* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/14/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 67 65 60 55 47 40 35 35 33 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 67 65 60 55 47 40 35 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 64 64 62 57 52 45 40 35 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 5 2 9 12 20 22 30 25 30 17 SHEAR DIR 75 130 244 308 33 229 256 251 250 248 246 240 209 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.1 24.7 24.3 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 129 126 116 111 107 106 108 113 115 115 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 65 66 65 67 64 58 58 55 53 53 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 12 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 71 80 90 93 88 80 57 47 42 57 38 200 MB DIV 47 19 19 14 34 40 6 16 26 -1 25 14 0 LAND (KM) 1476 1566 1642 1726 1818 2020 2053 1778 1517 1259 989 732 488 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 125.3 126.6 128.0 129.4 132.2 135.2 137.8 140.3 142.8 145.4 147.9 150.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 0. -5. -13. -20. -25. -25. -27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/14/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/14/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY