* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/14/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 33 36 40 41 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 33 36 40 41 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 31 31 31 32 35 SHEAR (KT) 17 11 8 8 8 9 18 17 27 16 21 12 21 SHEAR DIR 160 162 115 146 181 205 244 253 258 277 275 291 250 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 120 121 121 126 132 140 145 143 142 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 116 117 118 124 131 137 141 134 131 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 63 59 64 65 63 57 54 52 47 47 43 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 72 74 74 67 39 28 5 -17 -50 -81 -104 -126 200 MB DIV 34 25 17 21 14 4 1 13 -7 3 -13 0 2 LAND (KM) 1686 1630 1581 1532 1482 1429 1335 1137 832 672 628 664 656 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 17.0 18.3 19.9 21.3 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.1 42.1 43.4 44.6 47.7 51.3 55.0 58.4 61.5 64.2 66.7 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 17 19 18 17 15 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 5 5 13 29 40 38 36 44 51 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/14/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/14/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED