* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/14/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 36 45 54 61 66 65 65 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 36 45 54 61 66 65 65 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 43 49 55 58 60 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 14 14 8 14 11 6 8 9 12 10 SHEAR DIR 147 125 84 88 94 67 85 81 84 104 100 84 92 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 147 146 146 146 145 143 140 137 131 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 67 63 64 63 65 67 66 66 66 66 63 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 12 13 14 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 43 38 47 61 83 77 99 87 76 63 76 200 MB DIV -7 7 8 18 50 51 82 95 86 73 69 27 45 LAND (KM) 2054 1989 1924 1886 1848 1804 1782 1730 1691 1653 1600 1541 1450 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.7 12.4 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.1 138.8 139.2 139.6 140.2 140.5 140.8 140.8 140.8 140.9 141.1 141.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 26 30 32 34 35 32 23 12 10 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 6. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 11. 21. 29. 36. 41. 40. 40. 42. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/14/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/14/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY