* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/14/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 69 69 65 57 51 45 37 34 27 24 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 69 69 65 57 51 45 37 34 27 24 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 67 66 61 55 49 43 37 32 28 25 SHEAR (KT) 6 1 4 4 8 11 17 19 34 34 39 32 24 SHEAR DIR 116 214 332 92 200 270 245 237 226 228 219 183 183 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.6 24.9 24.6 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 126 120 113 110 105 107 108 111 112 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 66 63 61 62 58 55 55 51 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 13 12 12 9 10 11 10 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 63 70 74 92 92 89 101 96 99 73 94 77 70 200 MB DIV 13 14 22 46 40 14 24 44 63 60 63 43 -3 LAND (KM) 1558 1631 1711 1797 1891 2092 1979 1694 1415 1162 924 687 463 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.5 127.8 129.2 130.5 133.2 135.9 138.6 141.3 143.8 146.2 148.7 151.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. 0. -1. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -8. -14. -20. -28. -31. -38. -41. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/14/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/14/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY