* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 08/14/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 38 49 59 70 77 84 89 92 93 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 38 49 59 70 77 84 89 92 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 36 43 50 57 65 74 82 88 SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 6 11 6 8 5 6 5 5 6 7 SHEAR DIR 59 57 57 33 32 12 341 353 5 70 360 148 304 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 132 133 132 130 128 123 124 130 137 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 130 132 133 133 131 128 123 124 130 138 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -50.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 71 70 70 62 63 64 61 66 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 19 21 23 23 25 26 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 36 38 49 63 73 91 76 79 64 62 54 47 53 200 MB DIV 68 78 77 83 71 81 45 49 25 73 51 64 11 LAND (KM) 1017 1120 1223 1354 1487 1791 1784 1594 1417 1271 1193 1033 888 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.7 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.8 31.0 33.9 37.1 40.3 43.5 46.7 50.0 53.6 57.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 13 15 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 9 10 8 6 6 7 25 40 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 24. 34. 45. 52. 59. 64. 67. 68. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 08/14/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)