* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092009 08/14/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 37 49 57 65 68 70 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 37 49 57 65 68 70 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 46 52 57 59 60 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 17 14 14 14 10 11 10 11 10 11 6 SHEAR DIR 103 78 73 88 88 80 72 80 81 87 65 63 54 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 146 145 146 146 143 137 132 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 63 66 64 64 65 67 66 67 69 67 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 42 38 32 42 56 65 61 51 55 47 33 46 59 200 MB DIV -1 11 18 50 51 53 83 86 58 75 29 42 10 LAND (KM) 2006 1961 1916 1903 1890 1889 1892 1837 1775 1673 1557 1392 1158 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 10.9 11.0 11.8 12.8 13.9 15.0 15.9 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.5 139.0 139.2 139.4 139.6 139.5 139.6 139.7 140.2 140.9 142.2 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 2 2 1 2 5 6 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 30 31 33 36 35 31 16 10 7 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 24. 32. 40. 43. 45. 44. 45. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092009 NINE 08/14/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092009 NINE 08/14/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY