* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/14/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 69 69 65 62 54 47 43 35 33 29 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 69 69 65 62 54 47 43 35 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 68 66 62 57 51 46 41 36 32 29 SHEAR (KT) 3 1 7 7 7 5 15 18 30 33 32 27 24 SHEAR DIR 183 337 97 150 222 247 250 229 236 230 215 191 205 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.4 24.1 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 127 121 116 111 108 105 108 108 110 111 115 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 64 63 60 62 57 56 53 48 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 12 13 10 10 11 10 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 79 85 96 93 103 104 97 99 97 93 76 71 56 200 MB DIV 20 24 44 32 7 19 36 54 56 79 31 38 4 LAND (KM) 1642 1726 1817 1906 1999 2127 1852 1570 1306 1060 830 622 463 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.1 22.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 128.0 129.3 130.6 131.9 134.5 137.1 139.8 142.4 144.9 147.3 149.8 152.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -3. -3. -1. -3. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. -3. -11. -18. -22. -30. -32. -36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/14/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/14/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY