* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/14/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 51 57 65 68 71 73 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 51 57 65 68 71 73 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 49 56 66 73 77 80 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 4 2 4 7 1 10 3 13 11 14 5 SHEAR DIR 118 134 168 155 109 242 351 276 81 250 252 269 335 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 121 122 125 132 140 145 146 147 145 150 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 116 119 122 132 142 148 147 146 140 141 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 14 700-500 MB RH 55 59 56 55 56 53 51 49 51 46 48 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 69 68 62 57 40 15 -3 -14 -50 -68 -93 -109 200 MB DIV 0 6 7 -10 -25 1 -12 -4 14 8 6 -9 22 LAND (KM) 1481 1428 1374 1331 1304 1238 978 675 257 220 233 264 240 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.5 20.6 21.9 23.1 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 43.2 44.3 45.3 46.7 48.0 51.2 55.1 59.3 63.6 67.6 71.3 74.4 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 12 14 14 18 19 21 20 19 17 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 7 13 31 47 60 51 52 22 63 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 26. 32. 40. 43. 46. 48. 51. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/14/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/14/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY