* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 08/14/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 34 39 51 62 73 80 88 92 94 95 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 39 51 62 73 80 88 92 94 95 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 31 37 45 54 63 70 77 83 88 SHEAR (KT) 15 10 4 10 8 7 9 11 16 4 3 10 4 SHEAR DIR 64 84 29 41 60 40 37 32 8 346 1 286 242 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 132 132 131 131 130 125 125 130 135 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 131 131 131 133 133 126 126 130 136 145 144 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -51.5 -52.5 -51.3 -52.3 -51.3 -52.2 -51.0 -51.5 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 69 70 71 67 63 63 63 62 61 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 18 19 22 23 23 26 27 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 49 55 60 65 75 93 90 83 71 71 57 48 62 200 MB DIV 71 80 81 52 81 71 47 42 69 46 55 29 47 LAND (KM) 1246 1379 1511 1645 1778 1752 1567 1356 1206 1122 995 806 560 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.8 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 28.8 30.1 31.3 32.6 33.8 36.6 40.1 43.5 46.7 50.0 53.3 56.8 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 12 13 16 17 16 16 16 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 25 42 52 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 14. 26. 37. 48. 55. 63. 67. 69. 70. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 08/14/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)