* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/14/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 90 89 86 77 67 58 47 45 39 34 31 V (KT) LAND 85 89 90 89 86 77 67 58 47 45 39 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 85 89 89 86 82 72 63 55 49 43 39 35 32 SHEAR (KT) 4 1 3 5 8 14 18 20 26 28 32 27 19 SHEAR DIR 279 77 191 218 256 242 240 226 228 223 197 183 178 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.1 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.6 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 121 117 114 110 105 108 108 110 110 113 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 65 63 60 59 58 63 56 48 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 90 96 91 99 102 116 114 106 82 104 84 77 50 200 MB DIV 37 43 30 14 26 33 40 40 51 85 39 5 11 LAND (KM) 1750 1841 1938 2032 2130 1947 1632 1364 1135 909 677 532 444 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.2 129.6 130.9 132.2 133.5 136.2 139.2 141.8 144.1 146.5 149.3 151.7 153.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -19. -26. -31. -34. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. 1. -8. -18. -27. -38. -40. -46. -51. -54. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/14/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/14/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY