* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022009 08/15/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 50 53 54 55 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 50 53 54 55 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 42 48 52 55 59 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 7 8 9 6 9 7 10 14 17 13 8 SHEAR DIR 153 187 195 169 186 265 203 276 210 252 238 266 239 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 126 130 133 140 144 143 146 146 146 152 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 125 129 133 142 146 143 145 144 142 147 159 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 12 11 13 12 14 700-500 MB RH 56 56 53 52 52 48 49 50 47 51 47 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 62 58 54 51 30 16 1 -14 -30 -65 -95 -102 200 MB DIV 6 0 -9 -11 -11 -20 -20 16 -4 0 -13 -7 -11 LAND (KM) 1356 1263 1189 1129 1080 858 668 410 43 73 122 167 187 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.5 20.9 22.4 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 44.8 46.4 47.9 49.5 51.1 54.7 58.5 62.0 65.3 68.5 71.8 75.0 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 17 18 18 17 16 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 10 22 32 47 57 60 41 54 55 66 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. 34. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 TWO 08/15/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 TWO 08/15/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY