* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 08/15/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 73 83 90 93 95 96 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 52 62 73 83 90 93 95 96 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 56 65 74 80 86 88 SHEAR (KT) 14 6 8 12 11 10 11 15 12 13 6 16 5 SHEAR DIR 76 61 44 61 46 31 39 23 29 2 317 324 314 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 131 130 132 130 127 130 134 139 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 133 131 130 134 132 128 132 134 140 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 68 69 68 67 62 62 61 59 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 18 20 20 21 22 26 25 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 63 62 61 65 81 82 82 72 74 70 52 38 53 200 MB DIV 74 77 38 44 58 54 88 41 67 40 43 27 36 LAND (KM) 1426 1570 1714 1814 1770 1653 1391 1187 1062 1041 852 728 330 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.9 14.9 16.1 17.0 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.9 33.2 34.6 35.9 38.8 42.1 45.5 48.9 52.2 55.3 58.8 62.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 9 9 8 9 10 12 20 38 49 55 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 27. 37. 48. 58. 65. 68. 70. 71. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 08/15/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%)