* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP102009 08/15/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 102 99 94 80 68 53 46 38 31 20 16 V (KT) LAND 95 101 102 99 94 80 68 53 46 38 31 20 16 V (KT) LGE mod 95 100 99 93 87 74 63 55 47 41 36 31 27 SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 8 7 17 16 23 28 28 35 28 28 SHEAR DIR 201 232 260 269 257 247 219 230 215 212 189 184 193 SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.4 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 117 114 112 108 106 108 109 108 110 115 117 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 61 61 60 57 59 58 54 45 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 8 10 10 10 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 102 94 95 101 108 105 83 60 54 36 26 3 -19 200 MB DIV 27 28 19 24 40 35 23 24 36 30 31 30 23 LAND (KM) 1843 1940 2041 2144 2076 1789 1538 1274 1015 803 638 507 452 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.4 24.2 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 129.7 131.0 132.3 133.7 135.0 137.7 140.1 142.7 145.4 147.9 150.2 152.7 155.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -28. -35. -41. -45. -48. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 7. 11. 13. 13. 10. 7. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -5. -5. -5. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 4. -1. -15. -27. -42. -49. -57. -64. -75. -79. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/15/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102009 GUILLERMO 08/15/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY