* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANA AL022009 08/15/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 43 45 48 51 55 55 56 57 57 58 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 43 45 48 51 55 55 56 57 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 44 45 48 51 55 60 64 67 68 71 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 11 11 6 10 4 14 10 18 13 19 SHEAR DIR 204 213 205 215 246 211 266 305 276 273 256 258 250 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.5 29.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 130 133 135 142 144 144 146 144 145 154 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 130 134 136 144 145 143 143 137 137 146 155 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 55 50 52 52 50 52 50 50 48 49 49 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 8 7 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 54 48 47 40 27 11 -4 -45 -60 -94 -97 -97 200 MB DIV 2 -8 -21 -14 -1 -17 -2 24 -1 13 6 13 -2 LAND (KM) 1270 1181 1108 1070 1023 808 646 264 166 180 268 349 243 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.9 15.2 16.3 17.2 18.5 20.0 21.3 22.3 24.1 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.7 49.2 51.0 52.7 56.1 59.7 63.2 66.5 69.6 72.3 75.0 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 18 18 18 17 15 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 19 31 40 53 56 51 55 52 45 65 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 20. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022009 ANA 08/15/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022009 ANA 08/15/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY